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The NetSuds™ Report ©

The August 1, 2003 Issue:

Re-sending of this newsletter to any number of colleagues is encouraged provided you also cc: report@netsuds.com.  In return, we will invite recipients to subscribe.  Any other unauthorized re-distribution is a violation of copyright law.

Subscribe to this report by subscribing to the NetSuds Report at http://www.netsuds.net/mail.htm. You can get the web version of this report at http://www.netsuds.com/report/2003/august.htm


Definition:  "com and .com" = Telecom, Datacom, IT or Internet


In this Issue:

        1.0  Heard on the Net
        2.0  Jobs in the "com and .com" Market
        3.0  Calendar of Events
        4.0  Tidbits
               4.1    NetSuds on Tour
               4.2   
Email Advertising
               4.3    CLEC Snapshot
               4.4    MN Non-Profits Eligible for No-Cost Computer Training
               4.5    Domain Names For Sale
               4.6    WiFi, WiMax, WiMAN - Why Not
               4.7   
NetSuds CEO Roundtable - Next Roundtables starting in January 2004
               4.8   
Alien(s) Land In Fargo
               4.9    Council of Advisors
               4.10 
NetSuds Executive Search - www.netsuds.com/search/
        5.0  A Look in “The Closet” at Executive Stress
        6.0  The Marketing Argument for an Opt-in E-mail Standard
        7.0  Don't Ruin The Internet Revival
        8.0  A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy
        9.0  Guest Writers for this Report


1.0 Heard on the Net

1.1 People on the Move:

Please email:  people@netsuds.com to report a change in your job status if you are moving from or to a company in the "com or .com" space.  Include your new work contact information, not just your personal contact information.  We do not accept press release changes from third parties.  We must hear directly from the person who is 'on the move'.   You can include a 80 x 100 pixel (width x height) photo in JPG or GIF format.

NetSudser Todd Taylor has left Larkin Hoffman Daly & Lindgren and started his own legal firm - Taylor Law Group.  You may reach Todd at either (612) 325-5036 or ttaylor@ttaylorlaw.com.  Visit he company on the web at www.ttaylorlaw.com.

Former Metropolitan Airports Commissioner and new NetSudser Ted Mondale is the CEO of Nazca - www.nazcainc.com.  Nazca is a direct commerce automation solution company.  You may contact Ted at either tmondale@nazcainc.com or 612.279.6102.

I (NetSudser Mark Wyatt - mark@wyatt.net) am a former VP/GM for a local technology company, and was interested in volunteering some of my time to help other organizations. I have extensive experience in executive and management roles. I am interested in finding out how I can share my experience with others seeking executive and management experience in technology. You can preview some of the projects I have worked on at http://www.progressiveskill.com/markwyatt

NetSudser Jacques Koppel has resigned as President of Minnesota Technology, Inc.  Jacques has been a friend of NetSuds and we wish him the best on his next endeavor.

NetSudser Greg Stark is the new VP of Marketing at Ittrium; a web software company.  More information is available at www.ittrium.com.  You many contact Greg at either 952.401.8008 or gstark@ittrium.com.

NetSudser Dick Musser has joined LocalLink, an Internet services company, as Director of Sales for Minnesota and South Dakota.  You may contact Dick at either dmusser@ll.net or 952.934.9253.

1.2 Companies on the Move:

Please email:  start-ups@netsuds.com to report (1) the formation of a new start-up, (2) momentum change at an existing start-up, (3) addition of key hires, or (4) a funding event at a start-up.  We do not accept press release changes from third parties.  We must hear directly from an executive at the company which is 'on the move'.

Cell phone service provider Craig McCaw has led the latest round of investment in Twin Cities-based NextNet Wireless.  With Nextel having acquired the wireless broadband assets of Worldcom recently and the unannounced news that NextNet Wireless would be a major vendor of equipment to Nextel, it comes as no surprise that Nextel investor McCaw would take a financial stake in NextNet Wireless.  The investment further solidifies the news that Nextel will deploy NextNet Wireless equipment.

RemotePipes CEO and NetSudser Doug Bonestroo reports that RemotePipes has been selected to provide the underlying systems and network for Verizon's entry into the market for prepaid Internet services.  For the full story, see http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030728/cgm047_1.html or contact Doug at either 1-888-281-6575 or doug@remotepipes.net.

Revation was formed in late 2002 by former Aravox VPs and NetSudsers Perry Price and Mark Pietras.  The company is in stealth mode but developing products in the Presence and Instant Messaging markets.  Contact Perry at either pprice@revation.com or 651.204.3917.

ORBIT Systems' and NetSudser Tucker Johnson reports that client Arthur Shuster has signed a 4-year outsourcing agreement to have ORBIT manage computers, software, networks, email, and around-the-clock Help Desk support for users in St. Paul and Wichita.

They may be in entirely different industries, but Arthur Shuster and ORBIT Systems are both founded on the principle of delivering turnkey solutions to their customers.  Arthur Shuster’s expertise covers every stage of the interior design process, from initial design through installation.  Similarly, ORBIT Systems deploys and manages complete computer environments, including user support.  By providing the depth and breadth of expertise required for each piece of their respective solutions, both companies aim to deliver meticulously coordinated solutions to their customers.  Structured as a computer utility company, ORBIT apportions its extensive resources among multiple clients for an affordable and predictable monthly subscription.  Contact Tucker at either 651-767-3318 or GTJohnson@orbits.net. www.orbits.net


2.0 Jobs in the "com and .com" Market

Please email:  jobs@netsuds.com to report job openings in the "com and .com" Market.  In the body of the message, give the name of the company and a URL link to the job postings.

*          Dakota County Technical College - http://www.dctc.edu/employment_opps.asp
***       HighJump Software - http://www.highjump.com/careers/opportunities.asp
***      
St. Croix Medical, Inc. - http://www.stcroixmedical.com/_private/cgi-bin/positions_list.htx
***       Sinex Aviation Technologies - http://www.sinex.com/about/openings.htm

Hi Matt -

Thanks for posting our job opening in the Netsuds monthly.  The number of "good" people we had respond to our position is a direct reflection of the exposure received thru Netsuds.  I do not have a quantitative measurement but having posted the same job just 45 days earlier thru the 'normal' means provides a pretty accurate comparison.  The only thing we did differently was use the Netsuds site.

We have filled the position so the posting can be removed.  Thanks again -

Bradd Strelow
Director of Technology and Innovation
Dakota County Technical College



3.0  Schedule of Events

You can also try our new online calendar by clicking here for NetSuds and here for MedicalSuds.

The web calendars for NetSuds and MedicalSuds continue to grow in popularity as more and more people use them for the definitive place to find high-tech events in the Twin Cities.  The calendars are free to use for both tracking events and for posting your own events.  To post events, login as "guest" with a password of "guest".  The Calendars are accessed at

NetSuds - http://www.netsuds.net/cgi-bin/calweb/calweb.pl?cal=default
MedicalSuds - http://www.netsuds.net/cgi-bin/calweb/calweb.pl?cal=MedicalSuds

Non-Minnesota companies conducting events in Minnesota will not be allowed to post events for free.  Events posted to either of these calendars are not immediately available for viewing.  All events will be marked "pending" and will be reviewed for content prior to public viewing.

8/1 -  NetSuds Entrepreneurs Breakfast - Minnetonka
        
http://www.netsuds.com/eb/2003/august/

8/19   NetSuds Persuasive Presentation Skills Workshop - St. Louis Park
          http://www.netsuds.com/workshop/persuasive/

9/23   NetSuds Speak Like A Pro Workshop - St. Louis Park
 9/30  http://www.netsuds.com/workshop/slap/

 Date  Subject  Location
8/1
6:30-8:30a
NetSuds Entrepreneurs Breakfast  Marriott Southwest (Opus)
8/7
9:30a-2p
Securing the Enterprise Network DoubleTree Park Place Hotel, St. Louis Park, MN.
8/12
8:30a-12p
Test Drive Microsoft CRM New Horizons 1401 W. 76th Street Suite 300 Richfield, MN 55423
8/19
7:45a-12p
NetSuds Persuasive Presentation Skills Workshop Parkdale Plaza, 1660 South Highway 100, St. Louis Park, MN 55416
8/25
(all day)
International Conference onEmerging Technologies (ICET'03) University of St. Thomas, 1000 LaSalle Ave, Mpls, MN 55403
8/26
(all day)
International Conference onEmerging Technologies (ICET'03) University of St. Thomas, 1000 LaSalle Ave, Mpls, MN 55403
8/27
8:30-11a
Microsoft CRM Seminar Microsoft Office, 8300 Norman Center Drive, Suite 950, Bloomington, MN 55437
8/28
6:30-8:30a
NetSuds Entrepreneurs Breakfast Marriott Southwest (Opus)
 

4.0   Tidbits

4.1 NetSuds on Tour

NetSuds loves on-site tours!  Email me if you want to show off your company.  I can be reached at matt@netsuds.com.  No tours this month.

4.2  Email Advertising

The Business Journal reported that their daily email news reaches 5000 Twin Cities executives.  The MHTA claims a little over 2000 people on their email list.  Not bad but still a great deal less than the NetSuds and MedicalSuds email lists which reach 7200+ (yes, the lists are growing).  The NetSuds email lists are double-opt-in and concentrated on professionals in the communications, IT and Internet markets.  The MedicalSuds email lists are double-opt-in and concentrated on professionals in the medtech, biotech and life sciences markets.  So, rather than spend your advertising dollars on any other email lists in the Twin Cities, consider the NetSuds and MedicalSuds lists.  Contact matt@netsuds.com or 612.279.2154.  For current ad rates, visit www.netsuds.com/adrates.htm.

4.3  CLEC Snapshot

According to New Paradigm Resources Group, Inc. and published in the May 1, 2003 issue of America's Network, the CLEC market shaped up something like this:

Facilities-based CLECs 144
Total Sector Revenue $51,863,777,000
Network Route-miles 342,665
Voice Switches installed 1,221
Voice Switches planned 19
Data Switches Installed 8,740
Data Switches Planned 81
Access Lines 27,360,018


4.4 
 Always-On O Picks Top 12 Venture Capital Firms For 2003

 

http://www.alwayson-network.com/comments.php?id=627_0_1_0_C

4.5  Domain Names For Sale

Contact Jeff Pester @ either jp@urbanradar.com or 612.377.0370 for details on purchasing either datacage.com or intellasense.com. 

4.6  WiFi, WiMax, WiMAN - Why Not

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=10394

4.7  NetSuds CEO Roundtable - Next Roundtables starting in January 2004

NetSuds is opening up another group of CEO Roundtables in January 2004.  The first meetings of the 3 CEO Roundtables occurred January 21, 22 and 23.  Those three introductory sessions culminated in to one ongoing monthly session of participating CEOs.  If you are tech or medtech CEO and want to join us, (the first session is free), contact matt.noah@netsuds.comA synopsis of the CEO Roundtable can be found at www.netsuds.com/ceo/  It is repeated here as well.

NetSuds CEO Roundtable

Membership  Only CEOs of tech and medtech companies are allowed to join the NetSuds CEO Roundtable.  If you are a VP, CxO or President, you are not welcome unless you also hold the CEO title.  Perhaps we will start a CFO, CTO or COO Roundtable but until then, we are only interested in the top dog, the CEO.  If you are interested in becoming a member, contact matt.noah@netsuds.com.  Membership is not automatic.  There must be an available spot open in the roundtable.  You must have employees.  Your company must be incorporated.  Your company must be a tech (communications, IT, software, Internet) or medtech (medtech, biotech, life sciences) company.  You must pay a yearly fee of $1000 in advance.  You may not send substitutes to the Roundtable. 

Roles  Unlike the days of knights, kings and Camelot, there is no king of the NetSuds CEO Roundtable; only a facilitator; Matt Noah, CEO of NetSuds.com, Inc.  Knights are replaced by CEOs and the table won't be quite round.

Schedule  The Roundtable will meet 10 times per calendar year.  Our initial roundtable is meeting the last Tuesday of every month.  Each meeting lasts between 1.25 and 1.50 hours starting at 7 am.  A facility convenient to the majority of Roundtable members is used.  A continental breakfast is served.

Our next introductory session (free) has been scheduled for January 2004.  Attendance will be limited to just CEOs.  Contact matt@netsuds.com if you want an invitation.

Purpose  CEOs need resources to assist them in executing their duties and leading their companies.  Boards of Directors and upper management are not always the best or most independent resources upon which to draw.  The CEO Roundtable exists to provide CEOs with an independent resource of wisdom and shared experience.  Your key 'take-aways' from the Roundtable will be accelerated learning - so as to avoid common and uncommon pitfalls -, an expanded network of advisors and colleagues and tools to enhance the productivity and value of your enterprise.

Content  First, networking among the CEO members of a Roundtable is the best and richest content.  Second, the Roundtable facilitator will schedule subject matter experts of interest to the CEOs.  Examples include intellectual property, branding, sales, engineering, marketing, finance, compensation, human resources, M&A, etc. 

Format  Meetings will consist primarily of 2 elements.  First, "content" will be presented and discussed.  Second, "discussion" of common problems and solutions will take place.  The facilitator will lead both elements or assign elements to certain CEOs.

Confidentiality  Roundtable meetings are completely confidential.  Nothing said in a roundtable discussion, short of illegal activity, leaves the meeting.  This allows each CEO to feel comfortable discussing issues and subjects he may not feel comfortable speaking about with others.

4.8   Alien(s) Land In Fargo

Alien Technology and the North Dakota State University Research Park reached an agreement in early July to build a 120,000 square foot manufacturing facility in the NDSU Park.  ND officials see 300 jobs in Fargo by 2006 and over 1000 Alien employees in Fargo by 2010.  In addition, more companies which will serve as vendors to Alien in Fargo are expected.  Alien Technology is based in Morgan Hill, CA.

Alien Technology designs, develops and manufactures RF identification labels used primarily in retail inventory tracking.  Phase 1 construction will consist of a 40,000 square foot facility.  North Dakota has pledged $35.8 million to the project various economic development funds and some private financing.

4.9  Council of Advisors

Gerson Lehrman Group is a leading provider of independent equity research. They connect investors to primary investment data though the Council of Advisors, a network of 45,000 industry professionals in three areas; (1) Technology, Media and Telecommunications, (2) Healthcare and (3) Power and Energy.  Council members are paid for offering opinions on technologies, products, companies and markets. They are currently accepting applications for new council members at www.thecouncils.com.  For more information, contact New York NetSudser Michael Duran, Department Head, Technology, Media and Telecommunications Research, 212.984.3661 or mduran@glgroup.com.

4.10  NetSuds Executive Search - www.netsuds.com/search/

Welcome to NetSuds Executive Search™!

Markets  We work for companies finding executives and professionals in the following markets: telecom, datacom, IT, software, firmware, marketing, sales, engineering, finance, professional services, operations, manufacturing, medtech, biotech, and life sciences.

Business Models  We have 2 ways we can engage you as a client depending upon your needs and desires.  (1) We can act as a full-service traditional executive search firm with a local focus.  (2) You can advertise open positions via traditional fee-based advertising (www.netsuds.com/adrates.htm) and free advertising in our Monthly Reports (You can post openings for free in our Monthly Reports using our 1-line ad format, e.g. Company XYZ - http://www.companyxyz.com/jobs/).

Getting Started Rather than start from scratch, NetSuds Executive Search™ has teamed up with a premier executive search firm to serve the professional recruiting needs of those individuals and companies in our network.  The process is simple.  You can either contact Matt Noah at 612.605.5252 or at search@ netsuds.com to get the process started.  If you email me, please state the company at which you are employed and how I may contact you (phone and email address).  All communications are confidential.  When you work with NetSuds Executive Search™ you not only get the services of a premier executive search firm but access to the largest number of tech and medtech professionals in the Twin Cities.

Fees  NetSuds Executive Search™ is a competitive provider of search services.  As such, our fees are based on market conditions and are negotiable.

Background NetSuds and MedicalSuds are first and foremost the two most recognizable tech and medtech networking and business development organizations in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul.  We reach well over 7000 professionals via email at the click of a mouse.  Our live events draw public company executives, emerging company executives, entrepreneurs, marketers, sales professionals, engineers, finance professionals and associated professionals.  We conduct business events and have fun.  We assist people in attaining their professional goals.

Candidates  If you are an individual looking for a career/job move, email us your resume at people@ netsuds.com.

Matt Noah, CEO, NetSuds.com, Inc. - matt@netsuds.com
 



5.0  A Look in “The Closet” at Executive Stress

More than just taboo, stress can be hazardous to executive health

Dr. Heather Johnson is with the Klassen Performance Group and can be reached at 651-452-2441 or heather@klassenperformancegroup.com for additional information about the research she conducted or solutions for executives.

 

Jim approached the front of the room just as he had done countless times over the past 20 years as President of his company.  He enjoyed public speaking and today’s group came solely to learn about his company.  In spite of the unusually hot room and a dozen other priorities, Jim was looking forward to this talk.  When he got to the podium, a wave of anxiety washed over him.  Suddenly he was sweating profusely and struggling to catch his breath.  He went into the hall to regain his composure.  Minutes later, on his second attempt to address the group, he was hit with wave of anxiety so intense that his throat tightened and he couldn’t breath.  Jim left the room for good this time.  That was nine months ago and he hasn’t spoken to a group since.

 

Jim’s experience is not uncommon.  After interviewing 30 executives earlier this year, Dr. Heather Johnson of the Klassen Performance Group, found that most of them were struggling to manage what has become overwhelming levels of stress.  It wasn’t too long ago that stress-related problems resided with employees, but didn’t rise to the top.  As a group, leaders thrive on risk, fast pace, challenge, and even conflict, so it isn’t too surprising that their tolerance, and even need, for stress is higher than the average person’s.  However, the combination of a sluggish economy, war, corporate scandals, never-ending workdays, and a break-neck pace have pushed stress levels so high that even the performance of those at the top is hindered by it.

 

While executives feel greater pressure than ever before, they are unlikely to talk about it.  When employee stress noticeably impaired productivity and teamwork, and increased irritability and violence, employers responded by sending people to stress management seminars.  Employees generally acknowledge the problem and willingly attend this type of program.  Although executives would also benefit from a stress management seminar, you won’t hear them asking for it.  Executives are expected to “suck it up” and get the job done.  Admitting to being under stress is seen as a sign of weakness, so instead of learning how to manage it, they remain in “the closet” and suffer in silence while symptoms multiply. 

 

Ineffectively managed stress leads to physical, psychological, and emotional symptoms.  Executives interviewed by Dr. Johnson reported physical symptoms such as ulcers, headaches, and acid reflux.  Common psychological symptoms reported included an inability to concentrate, impaired decision making, and panic attacks.  The most frequently cited emotional symptom was anger.  In fact, almost every executive interviewed recounted examples of peers loosing their tempers.  Several interviewees described instances of hostility, verbal attacks, and even repeated threats of termination.   

 

An executive’s unmanaged stress permeates the organization and impairs the performance of everyone around them.  On the other hand, the few executives who manage personal stress well are able to mitigate the stress their employees experience.  Most importantly, they recognize signs that employees aren’t managing stress effectively and they know what to do when they see these signs. 

 

The fact that unmanaged stress is a problem at the leadership level is undeniable; finding the right solution is the challenge.  Because executives have unique stressors and perceive stress differently, they need more than a traditional stress management program. They need to go beyond deep breathing and develop strategies that will work for them consistently and quickly.  Where do executives learn the skills to manage personal stress and to create a culture that promotes stress management for employees?  “Leading Through Stress and Change” is a program Dr. Heather Johnson created based on her research into executive stress that addresses the most challenging stressors, the most effective stress management strategies, and ways leaders can immediately influence their employees’ ability to manage stress and keep productivity up. 

 

The bottom line is that stress is here to stay and executives need to perform in spite of it.  Stress management skills aren’t optional, they are essential for those who want to remain personally effective in turbulent times.  The question is, can executives get past the stigma associated with stress and learn how to thrive in spite of it, or will they, like Jim, find themselves drowning in it?

 

by Garret Johnson   Freelance Writer


6.0  The Marketing Argument for an Opt-in E-mail Standard

From NetSudser Miki Dzugan, 651-224-2277 or mdzugan@roi-web.com

There ought to be a law! And many legislators are working on it. If you have an e-mail address you know what I’m talking about – spam.

Ah, but just what is spam and what kind of law could effectively put an end to it without jeopardizing our ability to send our commercial message, uninvited, to the e-mail recipients, who we are sure will want to receive it? After all, we would never spam.

Nine years of online marketing has taught me the difference in effectiveness of various marketing tools, including e-mail. E-mail is the only Internet tool that allows us to push out our message rather than to passively wait for a prospect to stumble across it – and it’s free! Or at least very low cost. Of course, that is the problem; it is too tempting and too easily abused.

And the problem is International. Most of my junk mail looks like comic strip swearing. What law that the US Congress can pass will put a stop to that, I wonder?

The current big idea is to create a “do not e-mail” list similar to the “do not call” list to fight unsolicited telemarketing – an opt-out list that all can subscribe to. Well my e-mail address isn’t going on that list, uh-uh, honey. 

The most egregious spammers; the ones who sell e-mail harvested from Web sites as “double opt-in” e-mail addresses; the ones who mask their identity to hide who they are, the ones who promise to augment various body parts and cure your financial woes; those folks are drooling at the very thought of such a list.

The law needs to be very carefully thought out and it needs to have international agreement. The European community has set a standard of “opt-in.” Bulk messages can only be sent to e-mail addresses specifically given for that purpose.  

Does that kill e-mail as a marketing tool? No. It makes e-mail an even more powerful marketing tool and here’s why. 

The most useful aspect of the Internet as a marketing tool is the ability to build relationships, with your customers, your business partners and your market as a whole over great distances. E-mail is the bedrock of these relationships, providing inexpensive publishing of newsletters, ability to be involved in discussion groups and ability to inexpensively touch base with customers on an ongoing basis.

Used appropriately, e-mail is the goose that lays golden eggs. The whole NetSuds empire was built using opt-in e-mail. Misuse of e-mail bears a heavy price, however.

When the bookseller Barnes & Noble ventured onto the Internet, their first action was to buy an e-mail list and announce the new online store. They spent the next two years recovering from that. Even Internet savvy Amazon was christened “Spamazon” for sending promotional e-mail to people who had bought books from them; they had not gained permission to send future correspondence.

Now, the spam is so bad that few people take the trouble to protest to the perceived spammer, but that makes damage done by unsolicited e-mail all the more insidious. Recipients may be forming negative impressions and you have no way of knowing.

Then how can the good guys do direct marketing using e-mail?

There are two ways to promote using e-mail lists that you have not built yourself:

Sponsor an e-mail newsletter or discussion group with an ad.

Send e-mail to someone else’s opt-in list.

E-mail advertising or sponsorship has a much higher response rate than banner advertising. If the message is well targeted to the interest of the newsletter or discussion, you can experience click-through rates between 2% and 5% as opposed to unsolicited e-mail which boasts .2% to .5% click-through and banner advertising, which is experiencing .5% CTR.

The e-mail advertising works best when there is a strong affinity between the subscriber and the newsletter, such as NetSuds. Advertising through free discussion hosts such as Topica, is less effective because people relate to the moderator of the list and not to Topica. Ads in newsletters or discussion groups hosted free by Topica are treated like banner advertising and have a similar response. 

The second option, sending a message to someone else’s opt-in list ventures toward the gray area between spam and not spam. The primary difference is that an opt-in e-mail list cannot be purchased.  A true opt-in list has specified to the e-mail address owner the use that will be made of the e-mail address. Once the address has been sold, the opt-in list owner no longer has control of how the list is used and can not live up to the agreed upon use. When you send e-mail to a list that you have purchased it is perceived by the recipient as spam and negatively impacts your brand image.

Our experience with well targeted, stand alone e-mail offers to true opt-in e-mail lists shows, not only a higher click-through rate, but also a higher conversion rate. A free offer promoted through both banners and e-mail to several opt-in lists had a click-through rate of .2% for the banners vs. 2.2% for the e-mail. The conversion rate was even more dramatic; while about 2% of those clicking through the banner acted on the free offer, about 45% of those clicking through from the e-mail acted on the offer (see chart). 

AD UNIT

IMPS. (000)

AVERAGE CLICK RATE

AVERAGE CONV. RATE

NO. OF LEADS

All Banners

11420.8

0.2%

1.94%

888

All Dedicated Email

801.7

2.18%

44.73%

4,515

 Why should the standard be opt-in rather than allowing people to just opt-out?

We have already experienced the ineffectiveness of laws requiring information about how to opt-out in e-mail. Many spammers now have a paragraph in their spam messages pointing out that their spam is not spam because you can opt-out. Many have complained that the opt-out feature is simply used to confirm that the e-mail is working and brings on even more spam. This has destroyed the trust of e-mail recipients to the extent that they can be hostile to unsolicited e-mail, even with a valid opt-out mechanism.

The following graph taken from the July 16, 2002 eMarketer Newsletter illustrates the difference in performance between opt-in e-mail lists and opt-out. 

When interviewed about the performance of opt-in vs. opt-out e-mail lists, while 78% of respondents believed that a list can be grown faster using an opt-out mechanism, the same percentage saw that opt-in e-mail lists delivered much better results as shown in the following chart.

There may need to be a law, but with or without a law there are good reasons for online marketers to make opt-in e-mail the rule when building lists. We have shown that opt-in e-mail advertising gets excellent results and building opt-in lists creates stronger rapport with clients and better response from prospects.


7.0  Don't Ruin The Internet Revival

Excerpted from Gilder Publishing, THE FRIDAY LETTER, e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers, http://www.gilder.com/ - Issue 113.0/July 7, 2003

With deflation under control and President Bush’s supply-side tax cuts taking hold, the case for a U.S. economic comeback gets stronger every day.  But the conventional wisdom is that two of our most important and hardest hit sectors, technology and telecom, have so much capacity and so little confidence that it will be many years before they return to health. With telecom investment down 75% since 2000, economy-wide fixed investment down nine of the last ten quarters, more than 1,000 telecom bankruptcies, a nine-year low in venture capital investments, and a 28-year low in initial public offerings, it will take time to climb out of the deep technology hole.

There is new evidence, however, that we are climbing faster than most people think.

Despite the Federal Communications Commission’s best efforts, the cable TV and Bell telephone companies signed up 1.9 million new residential broadband users in the first quarter of the year, bringing the total to 19 million. Then in May three of the Bell telephone companies announced an agreement on new standards for extending high capacity optical fiber closer to homes and businesses. By now we should be passing Peter Huber’s "tipping point" of 20 million broadband connections - a rough projection of critical mass that will spark the next flurry of innovation on the Net.

Just last week, Microsoft and Apple each introduced new products that add voice and video capabilities to their popular "instant messaging" applications. The offerings are somewhat crude today, but they promise to turn computers into fully capable video-phones. Already, companies like Avistar offer advanced PC-based video-conferencing with TV-quality sound and video. Microsoft has spent an estimated $500 million building out its online gaming infrastructure. Its Xbox Live network, which now boasts 550, 000 subscribers after seven months of operation, and Sony’s Playstation network let teenagers and teenagers-at-heart play basketball, race cars, and hunt for three-dimensional terrorists with virtual rivals across town or across the globe. Madden 2004 football, hitting the Net this fall is the most highly anticipated collaborative game yet.

Soon inexpensive but high-resolution "webcams," built with cheap digital video chips from Foveon, will proliferate to every PC, laptop, Xbox, PlayStation, plasma screen, mobile phone, PDA, kiosk, ATM, conference room, operating room, building entrance, security check-point, baby nursery, auto dash and auto bumper. Ubiquitous digital cameras will cover most angles of most amateur athletic, educational, theatrical, and family events.

Previously unworthy of being professionally filmed by cameramen using conventional video systems, these events will now be cheaply captured, wirelessly forwarded, and then narrowcast, broadcast, and archived. Full- motion Macromedia "Flash" animations increasingly will replace static web pages. The phenomenon of informal, real-time journalism known as "blogging" will morph into video-blogging.

- Excerpted from a July 1 Wall Street Journal article, written by Bret Swanson.

Read the full article: http://www.gilder.com/Gilder.comNews/telecomrevivalbret.htm

Related link: Despite Contrary Views, Tech Comeback Is Real

http://www.careerjournal.com/columnists/managersjournal/20030701-managersjournal.html

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8.0   A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy

From NEC @ Shirky.com, a mailing list about Networks, Economics, and Culture, Published periodically / # 2.8 / July 1, 2003, Subscribe at http://shirky.com/nec.html, Archived at http://shirky.com

Introduction =======================================================

This issue's essay is "A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy", about persistent patterns in the design and operation of large-scale and long-lived online groups.

The essay is a lightly edited version of the speech I gave at the O'Reilly Emerging Tech conference this April. It was a stemwinder, so the piece is quite long (~10,000 words) -- you may prefer to read it on the web, at http://www.shirky.com/writings/group_enemy.html.

Good morning everyone. I want to talk this morning about social software ...there's a surprise. I want to talk a pattern I've seen over and over again in social software that supports large and long-lived groups. And that pattern is the pattern described in the title of this talk: "A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy."

In particular, I want to talk about what I now think is one of the core challenges for designing large-scale social software. Let me offer a definition of social software, because it's a term that's still fairly amorphous. My definition is fairly simple: It's software that supports group interaction. I also want to emphasize, although that's a fairly simple definition, how radical that pattern is. The Internet supports lots of communications patterns, principally point-to-point and two-way, one-to-many outbound, and many-to-many two-way.

Prior to the Internet, we had lots of patterns that supported point-to-point two-way. We had telephones, we had the telegraph.

We were familiar with technological mediation of those kinds of conversations. Prior to the Internet, we had lots of patterns that supported one-way outbound. I could put something on television or the radio, I could publish a newspaper. We had the printing press. So although the Internet does good things for those patterns, they're patterns we knew from before.

Prior to the Internet, the last technology that had any real effect on the way people sat down and talked together was the table. There was no technological mediation for group conversations. The closest we got was the conference call, which never really worked right -- "Hello? Do I push this button now? Oh, shoot, I just hung up." It's not easy to set up a conference call, but it's very easy to email five of your friends and say "Hey, where are we going for pizza?" So ridiculously easy group forming is really news.

We've had social software for 40 years at most, dated from the Plato BBS system, and we've only had 10 years or so of widespread availability, so we're just finding out what works. We're still learning how to make these kinds of things.

Now, software that supports group interaction is a fundamentally unsatisfying definition in many ways, because it doesn't point to a specific class of technology. If you look at email, it obviously supports social patterns, but it can also support a broadcast pattern. If I'm a spammer, I'm going to mail things out to a million people, but they're not going to be talking to one another, and I'm not going to be talking to them -- spam is email, but it isn't social. If I'm mailing you, and you're mailing me back, we're having point-to-point and two-way conversation, but not one that creates group dynamics.

So email doesn't necessarily support social patterns, group patterns, although it can. Ditto a weblog. If I'm Glenn Reynolds, and I'm publishing something with Comments Off and reaching a million users a month, that's really broadcast. It's interesting that I can do it as a single individual, but the pattern is closer to MSNBC than it is to a conversation. If it's a cluster of half a dozen LiveJournal users, on the other hand, talking about their lives with one another, that's social. So, again, weblogs are not necessarily social, although they can support social patterns.

Nevertheless, I think that definition is the right one, because it recognizes the fundamentally social nature of the problem. Groups are a run-time effect. You cannot specify in advance what the group will do, and so you can't substantiate in software everything you expect to have happen.

Now, there's a large body of literature saying "We built this software, a group came and used it, and they began to exhibit behaviors that surprised us enormously, so we've gone and documented these behaviors." Over and over and over again this pattern comes up. (I hear Stewart [Brand, of the WELL] laughing.) The WELL is one of those places where this pattern came up over and over again.

This talk is in three parts. The best explanation I have found for the kinds of things that happen when groups of humans interact is psychological research that predates the Internet, so the first part is going to be about W.R. Bion's research, which I will talk about in a moment, research that I believe explains how and why a group is its own worst enemy.

The second part is: Why now? What's going on now that makes this worth thinking about? I think we're seeing a revolution in social software in the current environment that's really interesting.

And third, I want to identify some things, about half a dozen things, in fact, that I think are core to any software that supports larger, long-lived groups.

- Part One: How is a group its own worst enemy?

So, Part One. The best explanation I have found for the ways in which this pattern establishes itself, the group is its own worst enemy, comes from a book by W.R. Bion called "Experiences in Groups," written in the middle of the last century.

Bion was a psychologist who was doing group therapy with groups of neurotics. (Drawing parallels between that and the Internet is left as an exercise for the reader.) The thing that Bion discovered was that the neurotics in his care were, as a group, conspiring to defeat therapy.

There was no overt communication or coordination. But he could see that whenever he would try to do anything that was meant to have an effect, the group would somehow quash it. And he was driving himself crazy, in the colloquial sense of the term, trying to figure out whether or not he should be looking at the situation as: Are these individuals taking action on their own? Or is this a coordinated group?

And he could never resolve the question. And so what he decided that the unresolvability of the question was the answer. To the question: Do you view groups of people as aggregations of individuals or as a cohesive group, his answer was: "Hopelessly committed to both."

He said that humans are fundamentally individual, and also fundamentally social. Every one of us has a kind of rational decision-making mind where we can assess what's going on and make decisions and act on them. And we are all also able to enter viscerally into emotional bonds with other groups of people that transcend the intellectual aspects of the individual.

In fact, Bion was so convinced that this was the right answer that the image he put on the front cover of his book was a Necker cube, one of those cubes that you can look at and make resolve in one of two ways, but you can never see both views of the cube at the same time. So groups can be analyzed both as collections of individuals and having this kind of emotive group experience.

Now, it's pretty easy to see how groups of people who have formal memberships, groups that have been labeled and named like "I am a member of such-and-such a guild in a massively multi-player online role-playing game," it's easy to see how you would have some kind of group cohesion there. But Bion's thesis is that this effect is much, much deeper, and kicks in much, much sooner than many of us expect. So I want to illustrate this with a story, and to illustrate the illustration, I'll use a story from your life. Because even if I don't know you, I know what I'm about to describe has happened to you.

You are at a party, and you get bored. You say "This isn't doing it for me anymore. I'd rather be someplace else. I'd rather be home asleep. The people I wanted to talk to aren't here." Whatever. The party fails to meet some threshold of interest. And then a really remarkable thing happens: You don't leave. You make a decision "I don't like this." If you were in a bookstore and you said "I'm done," you'd walk out. If you were in a coffee shop and said "This is boring," you'd walk out.

You're sitting at a party, you decide "I don't like this; I don't want to be here." And then you don't leave. That kind of social stickiness is what Bion is talking about.

And then, another really remarkable thing happens. Twenty minutes later, one person stands up and gets their coat, and what happens? Suddenly everyone is getting their coats on, all at the same time. Which means that everyone had decided that the party was not for them, and no one had done anything about it, until finally this triggering event let the air out of the group, and everyone kind of felt okay about leaving.

This effect is so steady it's sometimes called the paradox of groups. It's obvious that there are no groups without members. But what's less obvious is that there are no members without a group. Because what would you be a member of?

So there's this very complicated moment of a group coming together, where enough individuals, for whatever reason, sort of agree that something worthwhile is happening, and the decision they make at that moment is: This is good and must be protected. And at that moment, even if it's subconscious, you start getting group effects. And the effects that we've seen come up over and over and over again in online communities.

Now, Bion decided that what he was watching with the neurotics was the group defending itself against his attempts to make the group do what they said they were supposed to do. The group was convened to get better, this group of people was in therapy to get better. But they were defeating that. And he said, there are some very specific patterns that they're entering into to defeat the ostensible purpose of the group meeting together. And he detailed three patterns.

The first is sex talk, what he called, in his mid-century prose, "A group met for pairing off." And what that means is, the group conceives of its purpose as the hosting of flirtatious or salacious talk or emotions passing between pairs of members.

You go on IRC and you scan the channel list, and you say "Oh, I know what that group is about, because I see the channel label." And you go into the group, you will also almost invariably find that it's about sex talk as well. Not necessarily overt. But that is always in scope in human conversations, according to Bion. That is one basic pattern that groups can always devolve into, away from the sophisticated purpose and towards one of these basic purposes.

The second basic pattern that Bion detailed: The identification and vilification of external enemies. This is a very common pattern. Anyone who was around the Open Source movement in the mid-Nineties could see this all the time. If you cared about Linux on the desktop, there was a big list of jobs to do. But you could always instead get a conversation going about Microsoft and Bill Gates. And people would start bleeding from their ears, they would get so mad.

If you want to make it better, there's a list of things to do. It's Open Source, right? Just fix it. "No, no, Microsoft and Bill Gates grrrrr ...", the froth would start coming out. The external enemy -- nothing causes a group to galvanize like an external enemy.

So even if someone isn't really your enemy, identifying them as an enemy can cause a pleasant sense of group cohesion. And groups often gravitate towards members who are the most paranoid and make them leaders, because those are the people who are best at identifying external enemies.

The third pattern Bion identified: Religious veneration. The nomination and worship of a religious icon or a set of religious tenets. The religious pattern is, essentially, we have nominated something that's beyond critique. You can see this pattern on the Internet any day you like. Go onto a Tolkein newsgroup or discussion forum, and try saying "You know, The Two Towers is a little dull. I mean loooong. We didn't need that much description about the forest, because it's pretty much the same forest all the way."

_Try_ having that discussion. On the door of the group it will say: "This is for discussing the works of Tolkein." Go in and try and have that discussion.

Now, in some places people say "Yes, but it needed to, because it had to convey the sense of lassitude," or whatever. But in most places you'll simply be flamed to high heaven, because you're interfering with the religious text.

So these are human patterns that have shown up on the Internet, not because of the software, but because it's being used by humans. Bion has identified this possibility of groups sandbagging their sophisticated goals with these basic urges. And what he finally came to, in analyzing this tension, is that group structure is necessary. Robert's Rules of Order are necessary. Constitutions are necessary. Norms, rituals, laws, the whole list of ways that we say, out of the universe of possible behaviors, we're going to draw a relatively small circle around the acceptable ones.

He said the group structure is necessary to defend the group from itself. Group structure exists to keep a group on target, on track, on message, on charter, whatever. To keep a group focused on its own sophisticated goals and to keep a group from sliding into these basic patterns. Group structure defends the group from the action of its own members.

In the Seventies -- this is a pattern that's shown up on the network over and over again -- in the Seventies, a BBS called Communitree launched, one of the very early dial-up BBSes. This was launched when people didn't own computers, institutions owned computers.

Communitree was founded on the principles of open access and free dialogue. "Communitree" -- the name just says "California in the Seventies." And the notion was, effectively, throw off structure and new and beautiful patterns will arise.

And, indeed, as anyone who has put discussion software into groups that were previously disconnected has seen, that does happen. Incredible things happen. The early days of Echo, the early days of usenet, the early days of Lucasfilms Habitat, over and over again, you see all this incredible upwelling of people who suddenly are connected in ways they weren't before.

And then, as time sets in, difficulties emerge. In this case, one of the difficulties was occasioned by the fact that one of the institutions that got hold of some modems was a high school. And who, in 1978, was hanging out in the room with the computer and the modems in it, but the boys of that high school. And the boys weren't terribly interested in sophisticated adult conversation. They were interested in fart jokes. They were interested in salacious talk. They were interested in running amok and posting four-letter words and nyah-nyah-nyah, all over the bulletin board.

And the adults who had set up Communitree were horrified, and overrun by these students. The place that was founded on open access had too much open access, too much openness. They couldn't defend themselves against their own users. The place that was founded on free speech had too much freedom. They had no way of saying "No, that's not the kind of free speech we meant."

But that was a requirement. In order to defend themselves against being overrun, that was something that they needed to have that they didn't have, and as a result, they simply shut the site down.

Now you could ask whether or not the founders' inability to defend themselves from this onslaught, from being overrun, was a technical or a social problem. Did the software not allow the problem to be solved? Or was it the social configuration of the group that founded it, where they simply couldn't stomach the idea of adding censorship to protect their system. But in a way, it doesn't matter, because technical and social issues are deeply intertwined. There's no way to completely separate them.

What matters is, a group designed this and then was unable, in the context they'd set up, partly a technical and partly a social context, to save it from this attack from within. And attack from within is what matters. Communitree wasn't shut down by people trying to crash or syn-flood the server. It was shut down by people logging in and posting, which is what the system was designed to allow. The technological pattern of normal use and attack were identical at the machine level, so there was no way to specify technologically what should and shouldn't happen. Some of the users wanted the system to continue to exist and to provide a forum for discussion. And other of the users, the high school boys, either didn't care or were actively inimical. And the system provided no way for the former group to defend itself from the latter.

Now, this story has been written many times. It's actually frustrating to see how many times it's been written. You'd hope that at some point that someone would write it down, and they often do, but what then doesn't happen is other people don't read it.

The most charitable description of this repeated pattern is "learning from experience." But learning from experience is the worst possible way to learn something. Learning from experience is one up from remembering. That's not great. The best way to learn something is when someone else figures it out and tells you: "Don't go in that swamp. There are alligators in there."

Learning from experience about the alligators is lousy, compared to learning from reading, say. There hasn't been, unfortunately, in this arena, a lot of learning from reading. And so, lessons from Lucasfilms' Habitat, written in 1990, reads a lot like Rose Stone's description of Communitree from 1978.

This pattern has happened over and over and over again. Someone built the system, they assumed certain user behaviors. The users came on and exhibited different behaviors. And the people running the system discovered to their horror that the technological and social issues could not in fact be decoupled.

There's a great document called "LambdaMOO Takes a New Direction," which is about the wizards of LambdaMOO, Pavel Curtis's Xerox PARC experiment in building a MUD world. And one day the wizards of LambdaMOO announced "We've gotten this system up and running, and all these interesting social effects are happening. Henceforth we wizards will only be involved in technological issues. We're not going to get involved in any of that social stuff."

And then, I think about 18 months later -- I don't remember the exact gap of time -- they come back. The wizards come back, extremely cranky. And they say: "What we have learned from you whining users is that we can't do what we said we would do. We cannot separate the technological aspects from the social aspects of running a virtual world.

"So we're back, and we're taking wizardly fiat back, and we're going to do things to run the system. We are effectively setting ourselves up as a government, because this place needs a government, because without us, the place was falling apart."

People who work on social software are closer in spirit to economists and political scientists than they are to people making compilers. They both look like programming, but when you're dealing with groups of people as one of your run-time phenomena, that is an incredibly different practice. In the political realm, we would call these kinds of crises a constitutional crisis. It's what happens when the tension between the individual and the group, and the rights and responsibilities of individuals and groups, gets so serious that something has to be done.

And the worst crisis is the first crisis, because it's not just "We need to have some rules." It's also "We need to have some rules for making some rules." And this is what we see over and over again in large and long-lived social software systems. Constitutions are a necessary component of large, long-lived, heterogenous groups.

Geoff Cohen has a great observation about this. He said "The likelihood that any unmoderated group will eventually get into a flame-war about whether or not to have a moderator approaches one as time increases." As a group commits to its existence as a group, and begins to think that the group is good or important, the chance that they will begin to call for additional structure, in order to defend themselves from themselves, gets very, very high.

- Part Two: Why now?

If these things I'm saying have happened so often before, have been happening and been documented and we've got psychological literature that predates the Internet, what's going on now that makes this important?

I can't tell you precisely why, but observationally there is a revolution in social software going on. The number of people writing tools to support or enhance group collaboration or communication is astonishing.

The web turned us all into size queens for six or eight years there. It was loosely coupled, it was stateless, it scaled like crazy, and everything became about How big can you get? "How many users does Yahoo have? How many customers does Amazon have? How many readers does MSNBC have?" And the answer could be "Really a lot!" But it could only be really a lot if you didn't require MSNBC to be answering those readers, and you didn't require those readers to be talking to one another.

The downside of going for size and scale above all else is that the dense, interconnected pattern that drives group conversation and collaboration isn't supportable at any large scale. Less is different

-- small groups of people can engage in kinds of interaction that large groups can't. And so we blew past that interesting scale of small groups. Larger than a dozen, smaller than a few hundred, where people can actually have these conversational forms that can't be supported when you're talking about tens of thousands or millions of users, at least in a single group.

We've had things like mailing lists and BBSes for a long time, and more recently we've had IM, we've had these various patterns. And now, all of a sudden, these things are popping up. We've gotten weblogs and wikis, and I think, even more importantly, we're getting platform stuff. We're getting RSS. We're getting shared Flash objects. We're getting ways to quickly build on top of some infrastructure we can take for granted, that lets us try new things very rapidly.

I was talking to Stewart Butterfield about the chat application they're trying here. I said "Hey, how's that going?" He said: "Well, we only had the idea for it two weeks ago. So this is the launch." When you can go from "Hey, I've got an idea" to "Let's launch this in front of a few hundred serious geeks and see how it works," that suggests that there's a platform there that is letting people do some really interesting things really quickly. It's not that you couldn't have built a similar application a couple of years ago, but the cost would have been much higher. And when you lower costs, interesting new kinds of things happen.

So the first answer to Why Now? is simply "Because it's time." I can't tell you why it took as long for weblogs to happen as it did, except to say it had absolutely nothing to do with technology. We had every bit of technology we needed to do weblogs the day Mosaic launched the first forms-capable browser. Every single piece of it was right there. Instead, we got Geocities. Why did we get Geocities and not weblogs? We didn't know what we were doing.

One was a bad idea, the other turns out to be a really good idea. It took a long time to figure out that people talking to one another, instead of simply uploading badly-scanned photos of their cats, would be a useful pattern.

We got the weblog pattern in around '96 with Drudge. We got weblog platforms starting in '98. The thing really was taking off in 2000. By last year, everyone realized: Omigod, this thing is going mainstream, and it's going to change everything.

The vertigo moment for me was when Phil Gyford launched the Pepys weblog, Samuel Pepys' diaries of the 1660's turned into a weblog form, with a new post every day from Pepys' diary. What that said to me

was: Phil was asserting, and I now believe, that weblogs will be around for at least 10 years, because that's how long Pepys kept a diary. And that was this moment of projecting into the future: This is now infrastructure we can take for granted.

Why was there an eight-year gap between a forms-capable browser and the Pepys diaries? I don't know. It just takes a while for people to get used to these ideas.

So, first of all, this is a revolution in part because it is a revolution. We've internalized the ideas and people are now working with them. Second, the things that people are now building are web-native.

When you got social software on the web in the mid-Nineties, a lot of it was: "This is the Giant Lotus Dreadnought, now with New Lightweight Web Interface!" It never felt like the web. It felt like this hulking thing with a little, you know, "Here's some icons. Don't look behind the curtain."

A weblog is web-native. It's the web all the way in. A wiki is a web-native way of hosting collaboration. It's lightweight, it's loosely coupled, it's easy to extend, it's easy to break down. And it's not just the surface, like oh, you can just do things in a form. It assumes http is transport. It assumes markup in the coding. RSS is a web-native way of doing syndication. So we're taking all of these tools and we're extending them in a way that lets us build new things really quickly.

Third, in David Weinberger's felicitous phrase, we can now start to have a Small Pieces Loosely Joined pattern. It's really worthwhile to look into what Joi Ito is doing with the Emergent Democracy movement, even if you're not interested in the themes of emerging democracy. This started because a conversation was going on, and Ito said "I am frustrated. I'm sitting here in Japan, and I know all of these people are having these conversations in real-time with one another. I want to have a group conversation, too. I'll start a conference call.

"But since conference calls are so lousy on their own, I'm going to bring up a chat window at the same time." And then, in the first meeting, I think it was Pete Kaminski said "Well, I've also opened up a wiki, and here's the URL." And he posted it in the chat window. And people can start annotating things. People can start adding bookmarks; here are the lists.

So, suddenly you've got this meeting, which is going on in three separate modes at the same time, two in real-time and one annotated. So you can have the conference call going on, and you know how conference calls are. Either one or two people dominate it, or everyone's like "Oh, can I -- no, but --", everyone interrupting and cutting each other off.

It's very difficult to coordinate a conference call, because people can't see one another, which makes it hard to manage the interrupt logic. In Joi's conference call, the interrupt logic got moved to the chat room. People would type "Hand," and the moderator of the conference call will then type "You're speaking next," in the chat. So the conference call flowed incredibly smoothly.

Meanwhile, in the chat, people are annotating what people are saying. "Oh, that reminds me of So-and-so's work." Or "You should look at this URL...you should look at that ISBN number." In a conference call, to read out a URL, you have to spell it out -- "No, no, no, it's w w w dot net dash..." In a chat window, you get it and you can click on it right there. You can say, in the conference call or the chat: "Go over to the wiki and look at this."

This is a broadband conference call, but it isn't a giant thing. It's just three little pieces of software laid next to each other and held together with a little bit of social glue. This is an incredibly powerful pattern. It's different from: Let's take the Lotus juggernaut and add a web front-end.

And finally, and this is the thing that I think is the real freakout, is ubiquity. The web has been growing for a long, long time. And so some people had web access, and then lots of people had web access, and then most people had web access.

But something different is happening now. In many situations, all people have access to the network. And "all" is a different kind of amount than "most." "All" lets you start taking things for granted.

Now, the Internet isn't everywhere in the world. It isn't even everywhere in the developed world. But for some groups of people -- students, people in high-tech offices, knowledge workers -- everyone they work with is online. Everyone they're friends with is online. Everyone in their family is online.

And this pattern of ubiquity lets you start taking this for granted. Bill Joy once said "My method is to look at something that seems like a good idea and assume it's true." We're starting to see software that simply assumes that all offline groups will have an online component, no matter what.

It is now possible for every grouping, from a Girl Scout troop on up, to have an online component, and for it to be lightweight and easy to manage. And that's a different kind of thing than the old pattern of "online community." I have this image of two hula hoops, the old two-hula hoop world, where my real life is over here, and my online life is over there, and there wasn't much overlap between them. If the hula hoops are swung together, and everyone who's offline is also online, at least from my point of view, that's a different kind of pattern.

There's a second kind of ubiquity, which is the kind we're enjoying here thanks to Wifi. If you assume whenever a group of people are gathered together, that they can be both face to face and online at the same time, you can start to do different kinds of things. I now don't run a meeting without either having a chat room or a wiki up and running. Three weeks ago I ran a meeting for the Library of Congress. We had a wiki, set up by Socialtext, to capture a large and very dense amount of technical information on long-term digital preservation.

The people who organized the meeting had never used a wiki before, and now the Library of Congress is talking as if they always had a wiki for their meetings, and are assuming it's going to be at the next meeting as well -- the wiki went from novel to normal in a couple of days.

It really quickly becomes an assumption that a group can do things like "Oh, I took my PowerPoint slides, I showed them, and then I dumped them into the wiki. So now you can get at them." It becomes a sort of shared repository for group memory. This is new. These kinds of ubiquity, both everyone is online, and everyone who's in a room can be online together at the same time, can lead to new patterns.

- Part Three: What can we take for granted?

If these assumptions are right, one that a group is its own worst enemy, and two, we're seeing this explosion of social software, what should we do? Is there anything we can say with any certainty about building social software, at least for large and long-lived groups?

I think there is. A little over 10 years ago, I quit my day job, because Usenet was so interesting, I thought: This is really going to be big. And I actually wrote a book about net culture at the time: Usenet, the Well, Echo, IRC and so forth. It launched in April of '95, just as that world was being washed away by the web. But it was my original interest, so I've been looking at this problem in one way or another for 10 years, and I've been looking at it pretty hard for the a year and a half or so.

So there's this question "What is required to make a large, long-lived online group successful?" and I think I can now answer with some

confidence: "It depends." I'm hoping to flesh that answer out a little bit in the next ten years.

But I can at least say some of the things it depends on. The Calvinists had a doctrine of natural grace and supernatural grace. Natural grace was "You have to do all the right things in the world to get to heaven..." and supernatural grace was "...and God has to anoint you." And you never knew if you had supernatural grace or not. This was their way of getting around the fact that the Book of Revelations put an upper limit on the number of people who were going to heaven.

Social software is like that. You can find the same piece of code running in many, many environments. And sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. So there is something supernatural about groups being a run-time experience.

The normal experience of social software is failure. If you go into Yahoo groups and you map out the subscriptions, it is, unsurprisingly, a power law. There's a small number of highly populated groups, a moderate number of moderately populated groups, and this long, flat tail of failure. And the failure is inevitably more than 50% of the total mailing lists in any category. So it's not like a cake recipe. There's nothing you can do to make it come out right every time.

There are, however, I think, about half a dozen things that are broadly true of all the groups I've looked at and all the online constitutions I've read for software that supports large and long-lived groups. And I'd break that list in half. I'd say, if you are going to create a piece of social software designed to support large groups, you have to accept three things, and design for four things.

- Three Things to Accept

1.) Of the things you have to accept, the first is that you cannot completely separate technical and social issues. There are two attractive patterns. One says, we'll handle technology over `here, we'll do social issues there. We'll have separate mailing lists with separate discussion groups, or we'll have one track here and one track there. This doesn't work. It's never been stated more clearly than in the pair of documents called "LambdaMOO Takes a New Direction." I can do no better than to point you to those documents.

But recently we've had this experience where there was a social software discussion list, and someone said "I know, let's set up a second mailing list for technical issues." And no one moved from the first list, because no one could fork the conversation between social and technical issues, because the conversation can't be forked.

The other pattern that's very, very attractive -- anybody who looks at this stuff has the same epiphany, which is: "Omigod, this software is determining what people do!" And that is true, up to a point. But you cannot completely program social issues either. So you can't separate the two things, and you also can't specify all social issues in technology. The group is going to assert its rights somehow, and you're going to get this mix of social and technological effects.

So the group is real. It will exhibit emergent effects. It can't be ignored, and it can't be programmed, which means you have an ongoing issue. And the best pattern, or at least the pattern that's worked the most often, is to put into the hands of the group itself the responsibility for defining what value is, and defending that value, rather than trying to ascribe those things in the software upfront.

2.) The second thing you have to accept: Members are different than users. A pattern will arise in which there is some group of users that cares more than average about the integrity and success of the group as a whole. And that becomes your core group, Art Kleiner's phrase for "the group within the group that matters most."

The core group on Communitree was undifferentiated from the group of random users that came in. They were separate in their own minds, because they knew what they wanted to do, but they couldn't defend themselves against the other users. But in all successful online communities that I've looked at, a core group arises that cares about and gardens effectively. Gardens the environment, to keep it growing, to keep it healthy.

Now, the software does not always allow the core group to express itself, which is why I say you have to accept this. Because if the software doesn't allow the core group to express itself, it will invent new ways of doing so.

On alt.folklore.urban , the discussion group about urban folklore on Usenet, there was a group of people who hung out there and got to be friends. And they came to care about the existence of AFU, to the point where, because Usenet made no distinction between members in good standing and drive-by users, they set up a mailing list called The Old Hats. The mailing list was for meta-discussion, discussion about AFU, so they could coordinate efforts formally if they were going to troll someone or flame someone or ignore someone, on the mailing list.

Then, as Usenet kept growing, many newcomers came along and seemed to like the environment, because it was well-run. In order to defend themselves from the scal