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The NetSuds™ Report © The October 1, 2002 Issue: Re-sending of this newsletter to any number of colleagues is encouraged provided you also cc: report@netsuds.com. In return, we will invite recipients to subscribe. Any other unauthorized re-distribution is a violation of copyright law. Subscribe to this report by subscribing to the NetSuds Monthly Report (HTML or Text) at http://www.covc.com/mail.htm You can get the web version of this report at http://www.netsuds.com/report/2002/october.htm Definition: "com and .com" = Telecom, Datacom, IT or Internet In this Issue: 1.0
Heard on the Net
1.0 Heard on the Net NetSudser Steven Knight has left his position as Director of Software at Optical Solutions and become the Director of Software at Caspian Networks and GM of the firm's Bloomington office. Steven will be responsible for leading the firm's approximately 50-person software engineering firm. You may contact Steven at either sknight@caspiannetworks.com or 952.876.4600. Rick Paal has left his position as an Engineering Director at ADC to become the Director at Optical Solutions in Plymouth. You may reach Rick at rpaul@opticalsolutions.com. NetSudser and former ADC President & COO Lynn Davis has formed Tate Capital - www.tatecapital.com - in Minneapolis. Lynn can be reached at 612 766 4074. NetSudser Bill Hartman left the Twin Cities and joined Textron in San Diego as VP of Business Development and Marketing for their Test & Measurement Group. Bill had been VP at Ciprico and Director of Business Development at ADC. You can reach Bill at bhartman@tempo.textron.com. NetSudser Sherry Sigler Kushell, transplanted from eSteel in NYC has landed as VP of Strategy at ShopNBC. She starts in mid-October. You can reach Sherry for now at sskushell@hotmail.com. NetSudser J.C. Gureghian has founded Startupshoppe, Inc., a MN-based one-stop managed services firm for funded, early-stage companies. Through Startupshoppe, J.C. has developed a team of outsourced business professionals with experience in helping startups with accounting, bookkeeping and legal services, HR, marketing and even Web design. J.C. can be reached at 763.442.5600 or jc@startupshoppe.com. NetSudser Nathan Quist has completed his studies at the University of Wisconsin-Stout and took a position as a Communications Specialist with Eschelon Telecom. Contact Nathan at either 763.745.8623 or Naquist@eschelon.com. NetSudser David Stout has joined United Health Group as the Vice President of Technology Services for Uniprise Outsourcing. He can be reached at either 952.992.4117 or David_B_Stout@uhc.com. NetSudser Ann Slavec has taken a business development position with Invitrogen - a life sciences firm - located near Niagra Falls, NY. She left Minnesota on September 17. You can reach Ann at aslavec@yahoo.com. NetSudser Mike Blake left AT&T and joined North American Systems Inc. in Eagan. Contact Mike at mblake@nasi.com. NetSudser Bonnie Bennett has left Object Partners and joined Adventium Labs - www.adventiumlabs.org - as CEO. Contact Bonnie at either bbennett@kpmi.com or 612.720.4960. Brian Isle is joining Adventium Labs as Chief of Operations. Contact Brian at either b_isle@msn.com or 612.716.5604. NetSudser John Unger, a 6-year employee of XO Communications and Director of Operations, has moved up to GM of the Minnesota office. You can reach John at junger@xo.com. NetSudser and former Xo Communications General Manager Larry Piumbroeck is now running for State Senate in Minnesota. www.larryforsenate.com NetSudser Dick Borrell is running for State House in Minnesota. www.dickborrell.com NetSudser Joe Hoppe of Touch America is running for State House in Minnesota and will most likely win election given the voter demographics of his district in Chanhassen. 1.2 Companies on the Move: WhereToLive.com - www.wheretolive.com - laid off 23 people on September 3. Tate Capital - www.tatecapital.com - has been formed by NetSudser Lynn Davis and 3 others to invest in undervalued public microcaps in the technology and health care arenas. They have no plans to enter the VC space. Plans include active board participation and support. NetSudser Curtis O'Keefe of Communiqué Conferencing has announced the expansion of the company's conference calling service offering with PowerSlides Internet conferencing service enabling the real-time sharing of web-based presentations. You can reach Curtis at either 866.636.6338 or cokeefe@ccimeet.com. NetSudser Denny Campbell announced that Brake Tru - www.braketru.com - raised $425,000 to execute the marketing plan after successful product development. Contact Denny at either 651.484.4555 or denny.campbell@braketru.com. BroadSoft, a next-gen voice software company based in Maryland, announced the raising of $32M dollars in venture capital and the addition of 2 Board members, ex-Lucent CEO Rich McGinn (RRE Ventures) and Joe Zell (Grotech Capital Group). NetSudser Scott Wharton is the VP of Marketing at BroadSoft. NetSudser Igor Epshteyn announced that Russian Life in MN - www.russianlifeMN.com - launched just recently. Contact Igor at 952.930.3500 x222 or igore@coherentsolutions.com. Please give details on the above including any information you do not want made public. We are very discrete.
2.0 Jobs in the "com and .com" Market
* Adtec
Communications -
http://www.adtecusa.net/employmentOps.htm
3.0 NetSuds and MedicalSuds Calendars The web calendars for NetSuds and MedicalSuds continue to grow in popularity as more and more people use them for the definitive place to find high-tech events in the Twin Cities. The Calendars are accessed at http://mailman.netsuds.com/cgi-bin/calweb/calweb.pl and are free to use. If you want to post your events, there is a charge of $100and but you can post as many events as you like - if they are your own - for 2002 and 2003. 4.0 Tidbits 4.1 NetSuds on Tour - Hoyt Properties, US Internet, Berbee, CaspianNetSuds loves on-site tours! Email me if you want to show off your company. I can be reached at matt@netsuds.com. 4.1.1 Hoyt Properties I visited the beautiful former Science, Inc. building in Burnsville with Gary Lally from Hoyt Properties. This is a 37,000 square foot building with a 10,000 sq. foot clean room. The building is conveniently located to I-35W off of Cliff Road and has tons of parking in addition a beautiful new interior. It is ideal for either medical manufacturing / office space or can be readily converted to semiconductor processing. Contact Gary Lally at either garyl@hoytprop.com or 952-938-3418. 4.1.2 US Internet US Internet is a boot-strapped ISP which has more than weathered the technical downturn by growing in this market. US Internet, like many ISPs, has grown in to businesses other than simple connectivity. Hosting, shared hosting, "rent a server" and other services differentiate US Internet. US Internet is privately-held by Joe Caldwell, Kurt Lange and Travis Carter, has about 35 employees and has been in operations about 8 years. They host sites and parts of sites from polo.com, shopNBC.com, InstyMeds and BestBuy. Connectivity through US Internet includes DSL, PRI, BRI, T1, T3, frame relay, ATM, OC-3 and OC-12. The company runs lean and is building new facilities as they continue to expand. I was impressed by the level of commitment to technical excellence that the company seems to pride itself in. For more information, contact Mark Elert at melert@usinternet.com or 952.253.3242. 4.1.3 Berbee Jim Berbee started Berbee in the Madison, WI area and entered the Twin Cities market 18 months ago. They currently employ 310. They have two data centers in Madison and Brooklyn Park connected by an OC-3 pipe. The three services they offer are (1) data center, (2) hardware sales and (3) application development. Sales on a 12-month running basis are moving from $100M to $135M per year. Their data center in Brooklyn Park is an impressive 10,000 square foot facility with 2 large customers; Interelate and "a large healthcare concern". The data center is very Cisco, IBM and Microsoft focused. Security and reliability seem to be the points stressed most by Berbee. Multiple security checkpoints and lots of data backup and network redundancy are in evidence. For more information, contact Todd Gardner, Sales Engineer, tgardner@berbee.com or 763.592.5884. 4.1.4 Caspian Networks I visited with Steven Knight at Caspian Networks at their offices across from the Mall of America. The Caspian office is filled with 50 software engineers working on a terabit router. The market for terabit routers is huge but is somewhat stalled right now as the capacity is absorbed in the network. The three top players in the market are Cisco and Juniper and ... The Caspian product is a very scalable product distributed over several chassis. The product test laboratory in Minnesota allows the developers to simulate and emulate loaded network conditions as they prepare for a general release of the product (date TBA). The office is scaled back from the 80 engineers once employed there but the company received a $120M venture capital round earlier in the year so there is plenty of opportunity to weather the storm while development continues. Caspian is truly one of Minnesota's brightest technical stars in that their development is world-class and Steve is now leading the entire software development for that team. Making inroads against Cisco and Juniper will be difficult but not impossible. The critical element of success for Caspian will be their differentiated software, performance, manageability and pricing. In today's and tomorrow's marketplace, SONET, GigE, 10GE and IP over Glass are important features which will help differentiate products in the marketplace and help drive spending decisions from the carriers which Caspian is targeting as customers. You may contact Steven at either sknight@caspiannetworks.com or 952.876.4600. You can meet him at the NetSuds Best of Business breakfast this Friday, October 4. See www.netsuds.com/bob/2002/october/ for details. 4.2 Email Advertising - Part I The Business Journal reported that their daily email news reaches 5000 Twin Cities executives. The MHTA claims a little over 2000 people on their email list. Not bad but still a great deal less than the NetSuds and MedicalSuds email lists which reach nearly 7000. The NetSuds email lists are double-opt-in and concentrated on professionals in the communications, IT and Internet markets. The MedicalSuds email lists are double-opt-in and concentrated on professionals in the medtech, biotech and life sciences markets. So, rather than spend your advertising dollars on any other email lists in the Twin Cities, consider the NetSuds and MedicalSuds lists. Contact matt@netsuds.com or 612.279.2154. 4.3 Email Advertising - Part II
WOW!!! Just a quick note to let you know that the morning after our ads
ran in your newsletter we started averaging more than 300 unique users an hour
(600 between 7-9 am). Our previous best hour had been 62 unique visitors.
We have doubled our registered users in two days and have more than doubled
our ads in "Jobs" and "Stuff for Sale/Wanted."
It is definitely money well spent and we will be advertising more in the
future.
Thanks for your help and support.
I will definitely tell anyone who cares to listen about our experience with
Netsuds advertising.
BTW, feel free to post all of your events on our events calendar. (http://www.larryslist.com)
P.S. You can re-send this letter as a reference if you want
Darren J. "Dag" Cox, Larry's List, Dag@LarrysList.com, 612-375-0060 4.4 Upper Great Plains Technology Conference & Trade Show Fargo will be the hot spot for technology October 14-15 as US Senator Byron Dorgan hosts SVP Doug Burgum from Microsoft, BellSouth CEO F. Duane Ackerman, HandSpring CEO Donna Dubinsky and Segway CEO Dean Kamen to keynote. Optical Solutions CEO Darryl Ponder will lead a break-out session. For full conference details, visit www.uppergreatplainstechnology.com. Over 2000 attended last year's Conference which featured Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and Amazon.com's CEO Jeff Bezos. 4.5 BioTechnology Clusters Where are the USA's biotechnology clusters? How many are there? Where can they grow? According to the following report, the 9 biotech clusters are San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia, New York, San Diego, Seattle, Raleigh-Durham, Baltimore-Washington and ... well, you'll have to read more. www.medsuds.com/docs/brookings.pdf 4.6 Counterfeit Websites - A Legal View by NetSudser Linda Hopkins, Attorney, Intelliware International Law Firm, 651.481.0177, lkhopkins@intelliwareint.com Question: Is the use of computer software to locate Web sites selling counterfeit goods, with a subsequent look at the site in question by people, a grossly irresponsible method of gathering trade information? A Web site owner charged that such procedures were irresponsible as an element of the test for libel because the viewers of the site did not contact plaintiff before publication of the site as a source of counterfeit goods. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that this method of investigation was not irresponsible, an element of the test applied to non-news media defendants in libel cases. The judge also said that the defendants were not required to contact the plaintiff before publication of the Web sites. Why? The defendant presented evidence that these methods for spotting counterfeit goods’ Web site were standard in the industry and that consumer advocate groups usually do not contact targeted Web sites because they fear that the sites would go underground. Lesson Learned: Consumer and industry groups can use software and human analysis to evaluate Web sites for “pirated” goods without committing libel. Next month’s column discusses whether Web sites that allow users to request information create enough contact with consumers in other states to create court jurisdiction in those other states. 4.7 Visi.com Adds Great New Service I am a Visi.com customer and have been since 2000. They currently provide me 128K ISDN service and do a very good job.
I recently received this email notice from
them about a new service which I think is part of the future of the Internet
and email. Judge for yourself: Beginning the
afternoon of October 1st, 2002, we will offer customers with email addresses
consisting of: visi.com added anti-spam and anti-virus service at no extra cost. We are working on solutions to offer these same services to customers who
host their email with VISI.com as well as create solutions for our customers
who host their own email servers. More information should be available within
30 days after we initial roll-out. We have contracted with Postini ( VISI.com will be providing this service free as part of your VISI.com provided email account. This upgrade in service requires no new software for your computer. This added service is scheduled to begin on October 1st, 2002. Another announcement about this new service will be emailed a few days before it is launched as a reminder. New information will also be posted to the URL below as we begin to receive questions from customers. Our FAQ is available via the following URL: http://home.visi.com/support/mailusenet/postini.html When the service begins, you will be sent an activation email with instructions for how to log in to your password-protected Message Center. If you can't wait to learn more, we encourage you to visit the Postini End User Instructions page here: http://www.postini.com/help/The URL above contains example screen shots and general instructions on how to use the new system. Postini also has their own extensive FAQ online here: http://www.postini.com/services/faq.html4.8 "com and .com" Unemployment Whenever I see an unemployment number I shake my head and wonder who's doing the counting. It seems to be vastly under-reported. In the last 2 years, I estimate 40-50% unemployment in the "com and .com" markets. ADC is indicative of the industry, having gone from 22,000+ employees to about 7500. Some of those divisions were sold so no jobs were lost but the vast majority were shuttered. Locally, the trend seems to be complete career changes. One NetSudser reports buying in to a kitchen cabinet franchise. Others report going back for advanced degrees. One went from founding a VOIP security equipment firm to raising and selling buffalo meat - www.purenaturemeats.com. 4.9 And Iowa Shall Lead Us Well, not really. But read on. Venture Capital in Iowa is dismal in comparison to almost any State in the USA. See www.netsuds.com/docs/Iowa.ppt for details. The Iowa legislature did something to reverse the poor venture capital and angel investment scorecard in 2002. The same presentation lists some prominent legislation which appears both logical and effective. Check out Iowa 2002 House File 2586, "An Act Allowing a Tax Credit for Equity Investments in Venture Capital Funds and including an effective and retroactive applicability date provision." Origix CEO Doug Ruth reports that one of his Iowa investors will probably opt out of the next round as a result of the preferred treatment given to investments in Iowa-based companies. 4.10 SPVC Founding Partner Pat Hopf to Address NetSuds
The November 8 NetSuds Entrepreneurs Breakfast will include a keynote speech
by St. Paul Venture Capital founding partner Patrick Hopf. Mr. Hopf will
be leaving SPVC in a few months as he concentrates on his new VC fund Symmetry
Growth Capital. To register for the event, visit
www.netsuds.com/eb/2002/november/. 5.0 Schedule of Events You can also try our new online calendar by clicking here. 5.1 - Minnesota
10/4 NetSuds Best of Business
Breakfast - Minnetonka, MN
10/8 UofM IT Alumni Society "Venture Capital
and the Nanotube"
10/9
MedicalSuds Entrepreneurs
Breakfast - Burnsville
10/15 NetSuds & SMRI Workshop for
Sales Managers - St. Louis Park, MN
10/25
MedicalSuds Entrepreneurs
Breakfast - St. Louis Park
11/8 NetSuds Entrepreneurs
Breakfast - Minnetonka, MN
10/14 Upper Great Plains
Technology Conference - Fargo, ND
10/16 NetSuds Evening Gathering -
Raleigh, NC (TBA) 6.0 Minnesota: Taking Our Own Pulse The last two years have been the worst in the telecom market since Bell invented the telephone. True, for most that time, stability was artificial since telecom was a monopoly. Bell Labs did R&D and product engineering. Western Electric manufactured it. AT&T owned the network and ran it. Customers used it and paid a government-regulated charge for it. But the modified final judgment by federal judge Harold Green that broke up the Bell system in 1984 changed all that. In a very short 18 years, competition has exploded and then in 2000 started to implode. The "pin" dropped in the mid-1980s and AT&T had long distance competition. The seven regional Bell operating companies carved up the country and soon were buying non-AT&T, non-Western Electric equipment. Brilliant engineers and executives were starting companies, raising venture capital, and changing the world. In the meantime, wild-haired engineers and entrepreneurs invented the personal computer. In the beginning, 640 kilobytes of memory, diskless drives and 8086 processors were the norm. No mice. No graphical user interfaces. No applications. Today, we have Microsoft and Intel dominating the software and CPU (central processing unit) market. But Apple could easily have been the winner. Intel nearly didn't even move in to processors until its memory market was attacked from the Far East. National Semiconductor or Fairchild Semiconductor could have won the IC market. However, "Fairchild Inside" just doesn't have the same ring to it. It was rumored that Cisco almost ended up being headquartered in Minnesota—its chairman, John Morgridge is a Wisconsin native. And what if Minnesota native Ann Winblad had stayed in Minnesota and married boyfriend Bill Gates. San Francisco would have one less venture capital firm and Seattle/Redmond would be known for Starbucks and the place where Boeing moved from. In the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s the entire world was "low-hanging fruit." Everything was on the table. People raced to markets that emerged, thrived, and died within three to four years. Consider the disk drive market, the PC market, the chip markets, the software markets. ISDN was invented at Bell Labs but it was Ascend Communications (eventually was bought by AT&T progeny Lucent for over $20 billion) who captured the market. Other technologies, such as T1, frame relay, ATM, DSL, and even modems, were virtually unheard of before the Internet revolution. Companies such as Newbridge Networks 3Com, Bay Networks, Cabletron, Cascade, Hayes, US Robotics and Vocaltec have come to bring us cool products only to be supplanted months or years later by other companies with even cooler products. After all this evolution and revolution, what does it mean for the Minnesota economy? As a leading center of mainframes and supercomputer development, did we end up with our fair share of equipment, chip, and software companies? The short answer is no. Although we have some small telecom equipment companies like Optical Solutions, Digi International, Nextnet Wireless and Multi-Tech, ADC is still the king. And some promising companies such as Aravox and Northstar Photonics have fallen by the wayside. We do have some decent software companies like Lawson Software, Stellent, and Digital River. The storage networking market is sometimes referred to as a strong suit of the Minneapolis tech market but only Compellent has raised money in that market recently. Phil Soran, of Xiotech fame, recently raised a large first round led by both California and Minnesota venture capital firms. There are some bright spots on the horizon. Optical Solutions continues to slug it out in the fiber-to-the-home market after raising around $120 million in venture capital. NextNet Wireless has developed a broadband wireless product that has had great success in international markets. Doug Pihl's latest company, MathStar, was formed to address the optical and networking communications IC market. It's interesting to note how things could have been different. Former-ADC executives have spun off a number of companies. Unfortunately, many fled to the West Coast. They are business leaders like ADC refugee Cliff Davidow, who founded PowerWAN, headquartered in Silicon Valley, to address the broadband powerline access market. Think of PowerWAN as Internet access over your electrical outlet. Perhaps Xcel will be your ISP and phone company in the future. Crazy? Not when you consider that Time Warner or Cox will be your ISP and phone company's competitor as well. Recently, Bermai was formed by some University of Minnesota professors to address the broadband wireless IC market. Although headquartered in Silicon Valley, their design team is located in the Twin Cities. Not far behind is Wisenets; another UofM birth. Surprisingly, it appears only Optical Solutions and Bermai have local venture capital money backing it. NextNet Wireless has no local investors listed as principal investors. Mathstar raised money through a private placement led by locals Miller Johnson Steichen & Kinnard and Brightstone Capital. Most local opinion says that we have very good to excellent engineering talent but very poor to barely adequate hi-tech management talent. Perhaps that is why the tech teams from Bermai, PowerWAN, Caspian Networks and others are located here but headquartered on the Coasts. A few more local "wins" like NuSpeed, XioTech and Stellent will help fuel future growth. 7.0 Oversubscribing Broadband Networks Where Subscriber Experience Goes Head To Head With Broadband Operator Capital Costs By NetSudser Bruce Bahlmann, Alopa Networks Why is my broadband data connection getting slower? Broadband data subscribers increasingly find themselves asking this very question. Not so long ago the subscriber’s computer or even some Internet sites were largely to blame for a majority of broadband subscribers’ woes of slow service. However, those days are long gone, as bottlenecks are emerging in the access network as broadband service providers seek to rationalize the economics of offering flat rate, all-you-can eat service. Broadband data service providers have raised the price for service, reduced the bandwidth available to subscribers, and implemented various measures of oversubscription in an attempt to keep capital costs in check. Broadband operators seek to balance these measures to provide a service that is within acceptable levels to their average subscriber rather than cater to the power users who were their early adopters. To better understand oversubscription and what it means to operators and subscribers we’ll work through something called a “busy hour calculation.” A busy hour calculation seeks to determine how much bandwidth is being used at the most congested time on the network and whether the network is sufficiently sized to carry that traffic. Regardless of whether you’re using Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) or cable broadband service, one encounters a number of traffic (bandwidth) bottlenecks. These can occur within your home network (if you have multiple devices connected), it can occur within the “last mile” of cable that connects your home to the service provider (note DSL is effected by this but in a different way), there can be a bottleneck between your service provider and the Internet, and between that link and your final destination. Oversubscription is mainly to blame for the bottlenecks between you and the service provider as well as between your service provider and the Internet. In this article we are only going to look at the former of these bottlenecks. Over Subscription in the Last Mile The first bottleneck due to oversubscription is within the last mile of service. The last mile connects subscribers to their service provider. For DSL service, this relates to the distance limitations of DSL transmission technology in providing residential data service to customers – basically the further you are away from the central office the less bandwidth your service is capable of delivering. Over subscription does not really come into play for DSL’s last mile because there is a one-to-one allocation of resources (hardware and transmission lines) between the service provider and each customer – however bottlenecks are possible on the network that aggregates DSL last-mile traffic. Cable modem services don’t suffer from distance limitations like DSL, but because cable is a shared pipe, bottlenecks can emerge from access network due to oversubscription. To offer advanced services like broadband Internet access, cable operators have segmented their cable systems into numerous small sections of cable feeding smaller numbers of homes. Each section of coaxial cable (or hybrid of fiber and coax called HFC) can facilitate connections for about 500 homes. If that stretch of cable can achieve 10-percent penetration for data services it would mean that about 50 of the 500 homes passed have become subscribers. Most residential data services (including DSL and cable) operate asymmetrically, meaning they have less upstream than downstream capacity. Cable operators use a standard delivery mechanism called Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) that was initially designed to deliver around *27Mbps downstream and about *2.5Mbps upstream, which is shared among users on a network segment. However, only about 75-percent of this bandwidth is actually usable in practice due to inefficiencies in the cable plant and outside interference. If you take this inefficiency into account there is about 1.92 Mbps usable bandwidth on the upstream and 20.73 Mbps usable bandwidth on the downstream on a typical DOCSIS 1.0 network. That still sounds like a lot of bandwidth in terms of allocating this to potentially 500 homes. Not so fast. Cable operators like any other data provider attempt to squeeze as much throughput out of their equipment as possible. Rather than allocating all of this bandwidth to a single node, operators combine several nodes together (sometimes 12 or more) to a single Cable Modem Termination System (CMTS) card, typically with one downstream and four, six, or eight upstream ports – See Figure 1.0. *Note that DOCSIS version 1.0 offers the bandwidth described above. Newer versions of DOCSIS (such as 1.1 and 2.0) offer increased bandwidth in the upstream but are not widely deployed. DOCSIS 1.0 still exists in 99% of the marketplace.
Figure 1.0 CMTS Connectivity with 12 Nodes Node combining allows cable operators to reduce the number of CMTS units they initially require to deploy the service, lowering their initial capital investment. From a subscriber perspective, combining means that more subscribers could potentially share the same available bandwidth. During initial deployment, broadband operators do not typically know what kind of take rate each community will generate. Therefore it is extremely difficult to appropriately size the service (using combining) beyond making an initial stab at providing basic service coverage for a reasonable and affordable capital expense. Thus capital budgets dictate how dense each CMTS is combined with nodes. Upon this combining (which can be initially excessive) most (if not all) homes passed will be capable of supporting the service. However, the node density on the CMTS is such that any one combined area can quickly become saturated with subscribers if not properly managed. Proper management includes watching subscriber levels on each CMTS blade and then relieving the ones that have become oversubscribed by splitting up the initial combining across 2 or more CMTS blades. Since cable operators are not positive where their subscribers will be coming from it is less risky to maximize coverage for their capital dollars than purchase and deploy additional hardware upfront in an effort to decrease node density. This practice may be the least expensive way to offer the service but creates problems down the road. The problem comes after this technology has been installed and customers have been added. At this point, the initial capital investment is spent but further capital investments must be made to maintain prescribed service levels. These capital investments appear to be more difficult – perhaps because they represent an additional cost to maintain existing services as opposed to the initial investment that was merely a cost to offer the service. Cable operators address this problem by either purchasing additional equipment to provide relief to the oversubscription or continue to add more subscribers to the over crowded CMTS. In an effort to keep additional capital expenditures low, the latter tends to be the road heavily traveled. Lets review the implications of this action by providing an example. If a cable operator were offering a broadband data service with 512 Kbps downstream and 128 Kbps upstream access speeds, the available upstream bandwidth on the CMTS can support 15 (1.92 Mbps divided by 128 Kbps) simultaneous active subscribers and the downstream could support up to 40 (20.73 Mbps divided by 512 Kbps). Of the 50 actual subscribers of the service within a single node, one can assume that not all are online at the same time. Operators typically estimate that up to half of the subscribers are online at the same time during peak hours. Of these online subscribers, perhaps a quarter are actively using the service (uploading/downloading) at the same time. Therefore, there would only be 6.25 of subscribers online and simultaneously active using the service during peak hours (50 subscribers x 50% x 25%) per 500-home node. Together, these subscribers require 3.2 Mbps (512 Kbps x 6.25) of downstream peak bandwidth and 800 Kbps (128 Kbps x 6.25) of upstream peak bandwidth. This traffic represents 42-percent of the available upstream bandwidth and 15-percent of the available downstream bandwidth supported by a single CMTS upstream and downstream port. Based on these numbers and using the example 512/128-Kbps service, the link would be on the verge of oversubscription when more than 320 subscribers were installed on the downstream and 120 on the upstream. When the technology was designed, it was believed that subscribers would download far more than they upload (thus the drastic differences in available bandwidth on the downstream versus upstream). In practice, however, this has not exactly held true as new applications increasingly push the limits both ways. Current CMTSs port configurations allow a cable operator to balance upstream and downstream loading. The most common today is a 1x6 configuration, with 1 downstream per 6 upstream ports per CMTS card. Thus, in practice, an operator may take 12 nodes (500 homes each), combine them together and connect them to a single downstream port on the CMTS. In the upstream, they would then combine 2 nodes per port. The net result of this is that you no longer have 50 customers (using the example above) served by the available bandwidth. Instead you may have 12 times that number or more. The increase in subscribers per CMTS port as a result of by combining creates a potential problem for the downstream as well as the upstream in terms of consistently delivering the 512/128-Kbps service. For example, if the cable operator has 12 nodes combined with 10-percent penetration, the downstream port would serve 600 (10% x 500 x 12) subscribers, yielding a downstream port that is 188-percent (600 divided by 320) oversubscribed on the downstream and 500 percent (600 divided by 120) oversubscribed on the upstream. In this example, the maximum bandwidth the cable operator can deliver to during peak times is 276 Kbps downstream and 25 Kbps upstream traffic to these subscribers. From the subscriber’s perspective this adjusted bandwidth during peak usage is about 53-percent (276 Kbps divided by 512 Kbps) of their subscribed downstream bandwidth and 19% (25 Kbps divided by 128 Kbps) of their subscribed upstream traffic. Essentially the service is no better than half as fast as what the cable operator advertises during peak times. Fortunately, subscribers only notice a slight drop in their downstream experience when their usable bandwidth drops from 512 Kbps to 276 Kbps due to limitations on the Internet itself – the Internet rarely (if ever) delivers better than 300k. But if a subscriber is uploading something large they will visibly notice the delays caused by the reduced bandwidth. In practice, 250-300 Kbps downstream is the sweet spot for residential data services, whereas it is only 64-96 Kbps upstream. A cable operator that can deliver that speed to the subscriber consistently will have very happy customers. However, those subscribers whose service level falls out of that sweet spot will begin to visibly notice a reduction in their speed and start to complain. Interestingly, in the real world, many MSOs further cut corners by provisioning more than 1,000 subscribers per downstream port, cutting available bandwidth to each subscriber by half again. A number of studies have offered projections for subscriber demand for bandwidth. Of these studies one completed by Randy Nash of Motorola Inc. (a CMTS vendor) suggests that the current (2002) bandwidth demand per home passed is 60 Kbps downstream and 5 Kbps upstream. If we rationalize these numbers in terms homes passed in our first example of 500 homes passed we arrive at a bandwidth demand of 30 Mbps (60 Kbps times 500) versus our earlier calculation of 3.2 Mbps of bandwidth demand for 500 homes passed. If broadband operators were to build out their residential data service using Randy’s numbers they would essentially require a CMTS blade per node, where as if they used the busy hour calculations within this article the operator could combine up to 10 nodes per CMTS blade. While both approaches would work equally well, economics will dictate which method works best for each cable operator. One interesting data point that one can extract from Randy’s study is that broadband operators can expect to see about a 10-12 percent increase in bandwidth demand per subscriber per year. The increase can be attributed to a combination of things including increased usage, new applications, etc. and represents something useful to keep in mind for future capacity planning. The over subscription numbers can get worst if not properly managed by broadband operators. For example, if the average number of subscribers online surpasses 25-percent or penetration tops 10-percent (in practice broadband operators see anywhere from 10-24 percent penetration per node) the amount of over subscription could more than double.
Table 1.0 CMTS Subscribers Supported by Service Level Other factors will impact these numbers as well. For example, many cable operators have begun offering tiered services – different speed services for different prices (see Table 1 for how many subscribers could be placed on a CMTS without oversubscribing). Tiered services are the best overall value for broadband data subscribers because they allow them to only buy the bandwidth that meets their budget. However, in an over subscription situation tiered services can allow subscribers to migrate to the service tier that more closely represents the actual bandwidth that broadband operators are able to deliver when they most use the service. Why pay for a T-1 when 256 Kbps is the maximum bandwidth available (due to oversubscribing) during peak times or when subscribers most frequently use their broadband connection. Tiered services could have the opposite effect for some broadband operators as subscribers flock over to lower priced services that best reflect the actual bandwidth they can obtain during the times when they most use the service. However, while lowered bandwidth services can support more subscribers without oversubscribing so can the competition. Thus, operators seeing fewer and fewer subscribers paying for higher tiered services may find they are way oversubscribed. Over subscription reduces the value of the higher tiered services, lowers the quality of the experience for most of the subscribers affected, and creates opportunities for competing services to offer the same (if not better) quality service for a better price point. When are the Peak Times? A number of traffic studies have been conducted that tracked subscriber usage. Although efforts continue on this front some preliminary results seem to indicate the “busy hour” tends to be from 8 pm to midnight on Fridays. Other than that, weekday traffic seems to increase during the afternoon, peak around midnight, and then bottom out around 5:00 am. Interestingly, all these studies seem to conclude that usage patters are seasonal, unpredictable, and yet steadily increasing. Some studies have gone to the extremes of attempting to profile subscribers and model usage patterns to the point where they can yield some type of traffic simulators. Creating sophisticated models to predict bandwidth usage based on subscriber profiles, network history, installation rates, and actively polling the network may be useful at some point in the future, but in terms of providing answers to today’s problems it is more like rocket science – which is perhaps useful to the progress of human kind but not of much use to the average person on the street. Recommendations for Improving Last Mile Over Subscription You may have noticed that nowhere in this article did I mention any type of monitoring or active polling as a tool to gather information about networks to help make combining or bandwidth allocation and planning decisions. Monitoring is a terrific tool for Network Operation Centers (NOCs) to watch the availability of service critical network hardware and applications in an effort to keep everything working and reliable. Beyond that, monitoring or active polling is of little significance in determining planning events that have future economic and customer experience implications. Bandwidth planning is not an exact science so having up to the minute information is not worth the expense of gathering it – having it is merely a luxury. Instead, having simple planning models that can project the maximum number of subscribers that can be supported by a CMTS is good enough. Occasionally, it may be useful to run some bandwidth consumption reports across all your CMTS to check the accuracy of your numbers, but not to make planning decisions. Such sanity checks need not occur more than once a year. If you’re going to offer a broadband data service make every attempt to ensure that your subscribers receive what they are paying for no matter what hour. In this scenario everybody wins and your subscribers remain happy. Perhaps a good way to manage your peak traffic is through properly sizing Internet Protocol (IP) subnets across your CMTS blades. Managing the population of subscribers using IP address techniques is a very simple means of managing over subscription without having to actively poll devices in the field to determine your next course of action. A relatively safe hard point is a class C subnet per CMTS blade. This hard point allows for up to 253 subscribers on the network – well below the 320 supported on the DOCSIS downstream channel and twice that of the 120 supported on the DOCSIS upstream channel. Future versions of DOCSIS will provide relief to the upstream and further solidify this class C hard point. Another recommendation is to only offer services that you can support effectively on a CMTS. Cable operators interested in offering tiered services can easily forget that each subscriber they provide with a T-1 service costs them three 512-Kbps subscribers or six 256-Kbps subscribers. Almost every cable operator initially began offering residential data services advertising a T-1 speed to lure subscribers, but few of these types of services remain because they are impossible to support from an economical standpoint unless cable operators fetch 3-4 times their normal subscription rates. In addition, these services become so over subscribed that subscribers rarely ever see much more than 256-512 Kbps anyway. So, if you offer tiered services make sure there is value in what your offer at the upper tier or subscribers will seek out the lowest cost for the service delivered. Future versions of DOCSIS will include variations of Quality of Service (QoS) that allow cable operators to allocate bandwidth to sensitive services such as Voice over IP (VoIP). Of course, making these reservations impacts the available bandwidth to other services. If oversubscribing didn’t exist best effort would still work beautifully for all services including VoIP. Unfortunately, QoS further complicates the problem of handling oversubscription so voice services can traverse cable networks at the expense of best effort traffic. Bruce Bahlmann is director of technical market development at Alopa Networks and owner of the broadband information site Birds-Eye.Net. He can be reached at bruce@alopa.com. 8.0 Building your Referral Program by NetSudser Brad Canham, f4rword@aol.com How can you encourage your clients to give you more referrals? First, realize that you deserve referrals because you have an excellent service or product, are convenient and valuable for your clients. Referrals are a normal part of any dynamic business. People like to talk and people like to refer other people. With that in mind, your job is to insure your clients who like to talk can say things like “you should talk to THIS company/person” as a piece of conversation. Second, you must ask for referrals. During every interaction with a client let them know that trusted referrals are your preferred method of conducting business. (And who doesn’t prefer referred clients?) Here is how you do it. Part I 1. Referrals are all about the great exchange of info that occurs around any good business relationship. Leave a little time at the end of your interactions with current clients to talk with them about referrals and building their business and your business. 2. Get the ball rolling by letting your client know much you appreciate them and by setting the stage properly. You do this by mentioning a possible referral for them and hand them your latest “freebie” pen, new brochure, business cards, a magazine subscription, etc… And then be honest with them… 3. You say: “I’m wondering if you could help me. Trusted referrals are the most important way of building my business. If you know of someone whom would benefit from my services I’d really appreciate it if you’d pass them my card…” Trigger the client’s mental search of a person like that with something like the following light hearted question. You say: "Do you know of someone/a company that needs a little extra marketing help these days?” To encourage the client to make referrals, help them isolate people or companies in his or her mind. Is there a business associate who you can talk to? A relative? A supplier? Is there a tennis buddy? Listen for names that come up during your conversation. Script a brief profile or description of what you are looking for in a prospective client, and then describe a specific person or company, such as: You say: “Like a law firm in the Twin Cities that is looking for new clients who would benefit from a focused marketing campaign?” Or You say: “A telecom integrator who wants to move beyond their current sales goals and needs marketing to reposition themselves in their channel market? If your client hesitates to give a name, say this. You say: "That’s all right, Roberta. I think I understand how you feel. If someone you know comes to mind, you have my card to pass along to them. I promise you I'll never mention your name." Here is how you do it. Part II Also as part of your newly revised brochure and other marketing material you list referrals in “Note to the clients,” such as: "Our business is built on excellent service and trusting relationships. Please consider referring to us two or more potential people or companies whom you believe would benefit from our services and products." The fact that you prefer to conduct your business in trusting relationship manner is established at essential to the way you conduct your business in all your company literature. Here is how you do it. Part III Third, show appreciation for people who provide referrals. This is your key to continuing receiving leads from a client. Thank the client for making the referral. Write a thank-you note. Also, let the client know the results of their referral. Let your client know what a wonderful thing they have done. Give thank-you gifts in appreciation: send flowers, a pound of coffee, a shiny new pen, a subscription to a magazine. Apply these same principles to your co-workers and business associates, as well as receptionists and delivery people. Its amazing how much business these folks can send your way. Give them a gift package – again, flowers, a magazine subscription -- and let them know that they are a source of “trusted referrals.” Frankly, its quite likely that your trusted referral sources – be they current clients or the FedEx driver -- are the bread and butter of your business. Here is how you do it. Part IV And for when you reach your goal for the year: Hold a Client Appreciation Event and also include your trusted referral sources. Some businesses do this kind of thing monthly and send a letter to the home address to insure the family of the “trusted referral source” is aware of how much that trusted referral is appreciated. If your source is a quieter-type make sure you let them know they are appreciated in a low-key manner, such as a personal letter or a gift that they might especially appreciate (how about a good bottle of Cabernet sent to their home?). If you’ve ever been invited to one of these events as a “friend of the business” or received such a gift you know how rewarding it can be to know you’re helping to build someone’s success. Imagine how much your trusted referrals will appreciate your own event or special acknowledgement of their help on your behalf. Brad Canham started Vientus Group www.vientus.com , a marketing management practice, after working in Corporate Marketing at ADC Telecommunications until 2001.
With threats better understood, common vulnerabilities will make more sense in the overall view of business security.
Now is
the time to stimulate discussion and debate, and to kick-start security
awareness and planning within your organization. To aid their planning, some
companies categorize their assets as Protection Level I, II, II or IV depending
on the impact the loss or disruption to the company. Why not gather your key
personnel and possibly business partners around the table, draw some overlapping
circles, inventory your assets and discuss the appropriate protection level to
which to assign them and begin the process of assuring your own organizational
security. The organizational security policy has taken its place beside the
business plan in importance to the healthy, sustainable business.
10.0 Building Predictable Revenue With Effective Sales Management by NetSudser Ken Thoreson, ken@acumenmgmt.com. Ken will be conducting the October 15-16 ClairVantage Sales Management Workshop in St. Louis Park - www.netsuds.com/smri/ No matter what the size, truly effective businesses use a systematic approach to all aspects of their operations—from telephone calls coming into the office to shipping products out to the end-user. They consider details and measure quality. Sales management is no exception. In the early stages of a business, the entrepreneur may do seat-of-the-pants selling along with everything else from product development to shipping the finished product. Yet, as a business progresses, effective and systematic sales management becomes increasingly crucial. Understanding the sales management process—documenting it and executing it effectively—separates the merely average companies from those that exceed their corporate revenue goals. Rate Your Company This theory revolves around four components: the company’s overall business position, the maturity of company’s products and service, the effectiveness of its distribution channels and the sophistication of the sales management systems. To understand the concept, consider a graph with equal horizontal and vertical axis.. The left horizontal axis represents the company’s overall business position and the right horizontal axis the effectiveness of the distribution channel. The upper vertical axis is defined by the product/service maturity and the lower vertical line describes the sophistication of the sales management systems. Rate each component 1 through 5 for your company. The company’s business position: 1 = Development Stage, 2 = Growth, 3 = Turnaround, 4 = Steady, 5 = Mature. On the right horizontal side we describe the maturity of the Distribution Channel (Direct or Indirect): 1 = Nonexistent, 2 = Weak, 3 = Growth, 4 = Established, 5 = Dependable. On the upper vertical axis rate the Service/Product position: 1 = Creation Stage, 2 = Launch, 3 = Market Awareness, 4 = Market Acceptance, 5 = Refinement. On the lower vertical axis rate the sales management sophistication: 1 = None, 2 = Testing Concepts, 3 = Minimal Systems, 4 = Established Process, 5 = Sophisticated Reporting. In the past, when markets and opportunities did not move as quickly as they do in today’s business climate, most companies’ management processes would move along all four axes at about the same speeds. So, if one component worked at a four then the others would work at similar levels. Not so with rapidly growing companies launching new products. Things get out of balance. The situational matrix demonstrates this basic premise. If a new product or service affects the company’s maturity in terms of growth or turnaround it requires a more sophisticated sales management process. A development stage or growth company entering new markets with new products must establish sales management systems to attract, build and manage a distribution channel. For example, even in a mature company with an established distribution channel, a new Web-based e-commerce product quickly changes all aspects of sales management including recruitment, compensation, account management and measurement tools. The overall situation of the company affects all aspects of its sales management process including strategies, sales goals, compensation and much more. It provides a framework to begin developing or refining your current sales management plan. A solid plan enhances the sales leader’s ability to clearly communicate vision, strategy, tactics and set standards for the performance of the sales team. Individuals responsible for successful and effective sales management undertake the necessary research, think through possible actions, develop focused processes and set standards of measurement. If an organization’s revenues have flattened or declined, sales managers have clearly failed or missed critical links within the sales management structure. Components of a
Sales Management Plan These are the areas that must be defined in the company’s sales management plan:
Sales Management Resources, Inc. provides sales management seminars that improve the performance, execution and skills of sales leaders worldwide. A Minnesota seminar is scheduled for October 15th, and 16th. For more information call 952-846-4186 or visit www.netsuds.com/smri/. 11.0 Guest Writers for This Report We will consider both sponsored and unsponsored columnists and guest writers. If you are aware of others who would like to receive the NetSuds Report, ask
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